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1、1本科生畢業(yè)設計(論文)計(論文)外文翻譯外文翻譯(20092009屆)屆)題目Ⅰ:EstimatingFutureHighwayConstructionCosts2009年2月19日3projectsarecostedtheircostsareestimatedintermsofthecurrentcostoftheprojectthisestimateisnotadjustedftheyearinwhichtheprojectiss

2、cheduledfimplementation.Thesecostincreasescanbesignificantareofcoursecumulativeacrossprojectsalsotheyriseatanincreasingrateeachyearintothefuture.Estimatingfuturehighwayconstructionisthefocusofthispaper.Themodeldevelopedi

3、nthisstudywasdevelopedwithdatafromtheLouisianaDepartmentofTransptationDevelopment~DOTD!istherefeparticulartothatstate.Howeverthemethodologyemployedcouldbeemployedinotherareas.MeasuringProjectCostsWhenconstructioninthefie

4、ldlagsbehindplannedconstructionintheconstructionprogramitisusuallybecausetheprojectsthathavebeenconstructedhavecostmethananticipated.Thisisnotromvariationofactualcostsaboutestimatedcostsbecauseclearlyunderestimateswouldc

5、anceloutoverestimatesovertimeinsuchasituation.Ratheritisevidenceofaconsistentunderestimateofallprojectscollectively.Thebenefitofthisisthatitcanbemeasuredattheoveralllevelwhichismucheasiertomeasurethanattheindividualproje

6、ctlevel.Inthepastchangeinoverallconstructioncostshasbeenmeasuredintermsofconstructionindices.Theseindicesareweightedaveragesofthecostofasetofrepresentativepayitemsovertime.Theyhavebeenusedtodisplaycosttrendsinthepast.How

7、everthereisnoreasonwhycostindicesmustberestrictedtodisplayingpasttrendstheycanalsoptrayfutureoverallcostsprovidedtherepresentativepayitemsonwhichtheindexisbasedcanbefecast.Apredictiveconstructioncostindexwasadoptedinthis

8、studytodescribethechangeinoverallconstructioncostsinthefuture.Thefmulationoftheindexisdescribedlaterinthepaper.PastIncreasesinConstructionCostsWhenthechangeinoverallconstructioncostsinthepastisobserved(asmeasuredbypopula

9、rconstructioncostindices)itisapparentthattheychangesignificantlyfromyeartoyearthatthechangescansometimesbequiteerratic.Thecommonassumptionthatconstructioncostschangewiththerateofinflationcanleadtopoestimatesoffutureconst

10、ructioncost.ToillustratetheFederalHighwayAdministration’sCompositeBidPriceIndexanindexofoverallhighwayconstructioncostsisplottedinFig.1togetherwiththeConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)acommonexpressionofgeneralinflation.TheFHWACBPI

11、ftheentirenationfLouisianaaloneisplottedinthediagram.Allindiceshavebeennmalizedtoavalueof100in1987fcomparisonpurposes.Fromthediagramitisclearthathighwayconstructioncostschangeerraticallyevendisplaydifferentshtlongtermtre

12、ndsfromtothoseoftheCPI.ItisalsoapparentthatconstructioncostchangesaredifferentinLouisianafromthoseinthenationasawhole.WhilenotshownherereviewoftheFHWACBPIfromotherstatesshowsthatmanyofthemshowadeviationfromnationalvalues

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